From: Stephen Halchuk
Subject: Can WC champions qualify to defend? the historical perspective
Date: 30/11/2001

I decided to take a quick look at how champions fared in the next tournament

Year Champion        How they fared in the next tournament

1930 Uruguay -       refused to take part in 1934 (still smarting over the  
                     refusal of so many European teams to travel in 1930), 
                     did not defend

1934 Italy -         went on to be repeat champions in 1938

1938 Italy -         did not make it out of the first round in 1950 

1950 Uruguay -       made it to the semi finals in 1954, lost to the Mighty 
                     Magyars of Hungary, finished 4th

1954 West Germany - made it to the semi finals in 1958, lost to the 
    Super Swedes, finished 4th (Juste Fontaine scoring
    4 against them in France's 6-3 3rd place match)

1958 Brazil -       went on to be repeat champions in 1962

1962 Brazil -       finished 3rd in their first round group in 1966 

1966 England -      lost in the quarter finals in 1970 to West Germany 
                    (the revenge match)

1970 Brazil -       finished 4th in 1974 (1-0 to Poland)

1974 Germany -      finished 3rd (out of 4) in their second round group in 1978

1978 Argentina -    finished 3rd (out of 3) in their second round group in 1982

1982 Italy -        lost to France (2-0) in the second round in 1986

1986 Argentina -    lost in the "worst final ever" to West Germany in 1990

1990 West Germany - lost in the quarterfinals (2-1 to Bulgaria)

1994 Brazil -       lost in the final to France (3-0) in 1998

1998 France -       hard to imagine they won't make it to at least 
                    the second round 


looking at the 15 champions who have had a chance to defend their title
2 defended their title and became repeat champions
2 lost in the championship match of the next tournament
3 made it to the last 4
2 made it to the quarter finals
3 made it to the second round
2 failed to make it out of the first round
1 did not take part

So of the 15 defending champions, I'd say that the case could only be
made that perhaps 2 of them might not have qualified for the next
championship (then again they might have). Making it to the second
round and beyond would indicate to me that they would likely have
qualified without much problems.

Given that the talent level of a championship team is not likely to
drop so precipitously that they would fail to qualify for the next
championship, this would be a low probability event.

For comparison, in the European Championship, where the champion always
has had to qualify, only France (champions 84, failed to qualify for
1988)  has not returned to defend. This out of 10 championship cycles.


Cheers
Stephen